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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 23rd February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6239
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1853
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6196

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3700
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8436
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3664

POUND HEADLINES:

• The comments from Posen last night were predictably dovish, but the focus today will be on the BoE minutes and whether there were any more votes for a rate hike in February, as has been widely rumoured in the market.
• Yesterday's positive UK public sector finance data was all but a temporary distraction ahead of the key UK event this week - February's MPC minutes. Although following the release of the Quarterly Inflation report, the BoE Governor appeared to go out of his way to play down market expectations that the MPC is getting ready to raise interest rates, the consensus is for another MPC member to have joined the tightening camp, leaving the voting split at 6-3
• Some economists expect the first BoE rate rise in Q4 this year. Currently this is considerably less aggressive than forecast by the markets. According to the Sonia Curve markets continue to price in a rate hike in May. However, sentiment could turn swiftly with the second estimate of Q4 GDP, released on Thursday, also likely to be watched closely by markets.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro was one of the strongest performers yesterday, helped partly by the less extended positioning relative to many other currencies, but mostly by the comments from Mersch and Wellink indicating the risk of higher rates and/or removal of special liquidity measures from the ECB.
• German consumer confidence is rising as workers expect wages to increase in 2011, according to a survey by market research group GfK. The data came after a survey on Monday showed an increase in business confidence.
• Despite some positive UK borrowing figures the single currency was on top again yesterday amid heightened expectations of an EU rate rise. However, sterling soon turned lower following hawkish comments from European Central Bank policymaker Mersch.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD finished net stronger on the day in Europe yesterday, with weakening equities late in the day restoring a bid after a modest rally in the European morning, but has fallen back again in Asia overnight.
• Following a strong lift in US existing home sales in December we look for a modest 0.6% fall in January. While an improving US economic outlook may entice some households back into the market, the expiration of the home buyer's tax credit stimulus measures is expected to weigh on the short-term outlook for sales.
• The crisis in Libya was very much in focus yesterday with sterling losing ground to a broadly stronger US dollar. Sterling's losses were exaggerated as the market has been positioning for a UK rate rise in the coming months, which has been the primary factor underlying recent sterling strength.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 22nd February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6171
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1916
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6138

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3684
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8391
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3543

POUND HEADLINES:

• Focus in the UK turns to the latest public sector finance figures. Due to a rise in VAT receipts and corporate tax revenues, it is expected public sector net borrowing to post a surplus of £1.1bn for January. This should provide a temporary distraction ahead of tomorrow's key MPC minutes, where the markets are braced for another MPC member to have joined the tightening camp.
• We have had Sentance and Weale putting forward the hawkish case in the last couple of days, and we have Posen to put forward the dovish case tonight, but none of this changes anything substantive. The minutes tomorrow are the next major focus, and market gossip is assuming the vote shifted 1-5-3.
• Sterling has found itself in a stronger position against the euro this morning following Weale's comments on Monday saying that a small rate rise could reduce the need for a bigger rise later.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The German IFO business climate index and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI both topped expectations in February, with the latter hitting a new two-year high on surging exports and rising consumer spending. The recovery in Europe is being led by manufacturing which is, of course, something of a global theme.
• The Euro continues to show tremendous resilience to bad news. Merkel's election defeat in Hamburg and the widening of yield spreads between southern Europe and the core have had little perceptible impact, with the Euro still reasonably firm across the board.
• Of course, the strength of the Euro-zone data is helping, with the PMIs and the IFO data yesterday both indicating that the core continues to boom, and in the service sector as well as in manufacturing. But the upside for the Euro is limited as long as the problems of the periphery are not addressed with a comprehensive package. The effectiveness of this package could be compromised by a more reluctant Germany in the face of the election results, so risks are increasing.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Although US markets were closed yesterday for the Presidents' Day holiday, there was more than enough to preoccupy markets in Europe. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and surging gold and oil prices kept investors on the defensive.
• Today we have the US consumer confidence report and house price figures which are expected to be mixed. While US sentiment is predicted to have posted a further improvement, the housing market remains the Achilles heel of the US recovery, with house prices forecast to have dropped again in December.
• The USD is starting to benefit from the increase in tension in the Middle East, and there is potential for substantial USD gains, given the positioning numbers suggest the market is significantly short USD.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Monday 21st February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6216
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1850
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6044

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3684
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8438
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3538

POUND HEADLINES:

• It's all about the MPC minutes on Wednesday and with talk swirling of a hawkish shift in MPC voting and a number of bodies calling for an imminent hike in rates, the stakes for GBP continue to remain unusually high. The not so great underlying message from January retail sales on Friday is unlikely to have dampened conviction of the Bank's rate hawks. Focus now turns the minutes on Wednesday and the Feb PMIs next week for indications whether the promising start to 2011 stayed intact in February
• Sterling markets have been whipsawed over the past week by rising speculation of a near-term rise in UK interest rates. Although there was some relief that annual CPI inflation rose to 'just' 4% in January, that relief was quickly dispelled by comments for the BoE Governor in his open letter to the Chancellor.
• Traders seized on those comments as an implicit acknowledgement that the MPC was getting ready to raise interest rates. Although the Governor appeared to go out of his way to play down this interpretation when he presented last week's Inflation Report, the profile of the Bank's revised inflation forecast suggests the risks of a near-term rate rise have clearly shifted.
• Against this backdrop, markets will watch domestic developments closely this week, including second estimates of Q4 GDP. But given the intensity of the UK rate debate, the minutes to February's MPC meeting will be key focus.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The key focus today is the release of the February eurozone PMI and German IFO business surveys. Both provide an indication of economic trends in the current quarter and are probably the most closely watched of all business surveys by economists and policymakers alike. Scheduled ECB speakers today are Draghi, Stark and Weber.
• French PMI services for February comes in at 60.8 beating expectations of 58.0 and the PMI manufacturing comes in as expected at 55.3.
• German PMI services for February comes in at 59.5 missing expectations of 60.2 whilst manufacturing PMI comes in at 62.6 smashing expectations of 60.3.
• Eurozone PMI services for February has come in at 57.2 beating expectations of 55.9 & PMI has also beat expectations helping the Euro gain some momentum this morning.
• The German IFO has come in as expected showing an improvement for February. Significantly, notwithstanding prospects of German government spending cuts and a modest slowdown in Chinese growth, the expectations component is holding up very well, thanks to a pick-up in domestic demand led by a relatively resilient labour market.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The short-term continues to look ominous for the dollar index and even as we move into a 5th straight day of selling and violence escalates in North Africa/Middle East, technically the picture does not yet look oversold. US markets are close today so liquidity could be poor, a reason perhaps for investors to test support in the 77.643 area.
• The pound rose to a two-week high against the dollar on Friday following strong UK retail sales data. The pound/dollar has moved away from its high but is continuing to hold above $1.62.
• Tomorrow for the US we have S&P Case-Schiller House Price, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 18th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6198
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1946
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6031

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3558
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8370
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3419

POUND HEADLINES:

• Bank of England monetary policy committee member Andrew Sentance has put further pressure on colleagues over high UK inflation in a speech. He questioned claims that unemployment and spare capacity in the UK economy would slow down price rises, which he instead blamed on strong global demand. Mr Sentance has been voting for an interest rate rise since June.
• UK retail sales rebounded in January after heavy snow caused a big drop in December sales, latest figures have shown. The volume of retail sales in January rose 1.9% on the previous month. Decembers monthly figure was also revised downwards to show a 1.4% monthly drop - the biggest December fall since records began.
• UK mortgage lending fell by 13% in January compared with December to the lowest level for a year at £9.2bn, lenders have said this morning. The mortgage market is likely to remain constrained in the coming months reflecting the sluggish state of the UK economy as a whole, as well as lack of demand.
• The Pound rose yesterday, following Andrew Sentance's bullish comments on interest rates. In trading this morning sterling is continuing to stretch its rally following strong Retail sales data bringing the price back above 1.19.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Reminding us that inflationary pressures are not just a UK phenomena, German PPI for January is expected to show a rise of 0.7% from the previous month, taking the annual increase to 5.2%.
• The ECB will be keeping a close eye to ensure that such increases do not lead to an entrenchment of increased wage expectations, driving consumer prices higher. CPI inflation in the 17 nation eurozone
  reached 2.4% year-on-year in January, while German reached 2.0%, both above the ECB's target of just under 2.0%.
• Germany has warned that the eurozone's future bail-out fund must not become a "regional development fund", despite Europe's widely diverging economies. Next month the EU plans to finalise the rules for the new permanent fund - the European stability Mechanism (ESM).
• Spain's auctions were marginally disappointing yesterday, raising a little less than expected, but Portugal was an even bigger underperformer as rumours circulated that they were being pressured to accept a bailout. The big rise in the use of the ECB's marginal lending facility was also apparently EUR negative, but EUR weakness was very selective, only really showing up against the CHF.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• US prices rose 0.4% in January compared with the previous month, mostly due to rising food and fuel prices. The rate of change was the same as seen in December.
• The USD was soft through yesterday's trading in spite of the strongest Philadelphia Fed survey since 2004, and the apparent increase in geopolitical concern apparent in declining yields in the US and elsewhere.
• The USD for the moment appears to have lost its safe haven status, with the CHF and NOK seemingly the best performers on risk negative news, and even the AUD performing well yesterday.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 17th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6126
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1877
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6065

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3577
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8419
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3526

POUND HEADLINES:

• After the excitement generated by Mervyn King's letter to the Chancellor on Tuesday, yesterday's inflation Report and in particular King's comments at the press conference were more balanced on the outlook for interest rates than many had expected. The Governor stressed that the outlook for inflation remained highly uncertain. Reading between the lines this implies that a near term rate hike is not a done deal, although it does seem that the balance of opinion on the MPC is becoming more hawkish. Next weeks minutes for the February meeting should provide some further indication of the extent to which the consensus has moved.
• UK unemployment rose by 44,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of December. The unemployment rate is now 7.9%, with youth unemployment running at 20.5%. The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance also increased, by 2,400 last month to 1.46 million.
• On Friday we have Retail Sales data.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Spain's long-dated bond auctions will attract attention but the long-term commitment of China to support Iberian debt means that, relative EU spread differentials aside, supply should pass without too many glitches.
• Jens Weidmann has been named to take over the helm of the Bundesbank, running the central bank of Germany in Europe's strongest economy. As the head of the Bundesbank Weidmann is expected to have a strong voice at the ECB.
• Tomorrow we have German PPI figures.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The PPI figures for the US published yesterday showed a second successive rapid rise. However, this was mostly down to a big hike in the food and energy component reflecting the run up in oil and agricultural prices. More positively there was little sign of this being passed through into a more general rise in prices. It is expected a similar story will come out of today's CPI data. The headline figure is expected to be up by 0.4% on the month.
• However, despite their concerns about the increase in producer prices, analysts said that there were a number of other factors helping to keep a lid on inflation. On Wednesday, separate figures showed that industrialproduction slipped in January, and signals from the housing sector have been mixed recently. At the same time, the unemployment rate is proving difficult to bring down. Last week, the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the US unemployment rate would not return to pre-financial crisis levels for "several years".
• Initial Claims and Philly Fed survey likely to be the movers of the day unless the jump in PPI is repeated in CPI.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 16th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6145
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1913
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6141

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3549
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8399
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3547

POUND HEADLINES:

• A choppy day for sterling markets yesterday, as initial relief that the January CPI came in at 'just' 4.0% gave way to fears of a near term rate hike following comments in the BoE Governor's latest open letter to the Chancellor. The Bank of England Governor appeared to give credence to the market's view that the MPC will raise interest rates by 25bp by May, noting that 'under the assumption that Bank rate increases in line with market expectations' inflation is as likely to be above 2% as below over the medium term. However, the letter was not an unequivocal endorsement of this view.
• Focus now turns to today's all-important inflation report for a clearer steer on the policy outlook. Although Governor King has already given a strong clue as to the profile of its pivotal inflation fan chart, the tone of the report and, more importantly, the comments made by king in the accompanying press conference will be instrumental in guiding market sentiment. Expect another choppy day.
• UK unemployment rose by 44,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of December. The UK unemployment rate is now 7.9%. The number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance increased by 2,400 last month to 1.46 million.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro may have benefited slightly from the agreement that the ESM will have a full EUR 500bn to play with, though this was hardly unexpected, and isn't relevant until 2013. Weaker year-on-year Greek GDP growth is perhaps more relevant, but as the market is already assuming some sort of Greek restructuring, didn't have a significant impact.
• The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2010, slightly weaker than expected. This was the second quarter of 0.3% growth in the 16 countries using the euro at the time.
• The growth figure for the 27 countries that make up the EU as a whole was 0.2% in the fourth quarter. For 2010 as a whole, GDP increased by 1.7% in both the eurozone area and the full EU area.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• In the US, the main focus today will be the January PPI report. We expect PPI inflation to have slowed from an annual 4.0% in December to 3.5%, with the core rate at just 1.2%.
• US housing starts and industrial production are also due. These are expected to confirm that the expansion continues apace, with housing starts forecast to rise to 555k and IP by 0.7%m/m. This will be the first with the new (more hawkish) voting panel.
• US sales rose by 0.3%, less than analysts' expectations of a 0.6% increase, as extreme weather in large parts of the country kept some shoppers at home. On an annual basis retail sales were up 7.8% from January 2010.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 15th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6054
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1865
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6006

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3530
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8427
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3490

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today's economic calendar is a busy one with UK CPI inflation taking centre stage. The UK CPI numbers have the capacity to be a big market mover, particularly ahead of tomorrow's key Bank of England Inflation Report.
• It is expected higher food and energy prices to have lifted the annual CPI up from 3.7% to 4.0% in January, in line with the market consensus. The big uncertainty is how much of the VAT increase at the start of the year has already been passed on by retailers, and how this compares with the impact of the 2.5ppt VAT increase in January 2011.
• Looking ahead of the week we also have Unemployment, CBI Trends Total Orders and Retail sales figures

EURO HEADLINES:

• Eurozone GDP Q4 figures were released this morning which have showed that both the French and German economies both grew in the fourth quarter of 2010, but by slightly less than expected.
• In Germany, the economy grew by 0.4% in the final three months of the year. For 2010 as a whole, the German economy grew by 3.6%
• The German ZEW survey will also be released later this morning. It is expected that this will show further signs of recovery.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• In the US the calendar is dominated by January retail sales and the February Empire manufacturing surveys. Robust improvements are forecast in both, further raising the upside risks to Q1 GDP.
• US President Obama has unveiled his 2012 budget, describing the proposal as a "down payment" on future cuts to the US budget deficit. The budget aims to cut $1.1tn from the US deficit over a decade.
• Towards the end of the week we have CPI and Philadelphia Fed Survey.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Monday 14th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5994
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1886
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5969

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3455
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8412
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3434

POUND HEADLINES:

• A big week for sterling with the Inflation report on Wednesday having potential to significantly change market expectations on rates. With three rate hikes priced in for the year, it is hard to see how more gets priced in ahead of the QIR, suggesting some downside potential for sterling in the run-up to the Report.
• In addition to the report, the UK's consumer prices, employment and retail sales figures are all due, which should provide a better picture of the country's economic health.
• It is expected that the pound will climb against the euro through the week, particularly as eurozone bond yields start to widen again, but could struggle to push far against the US dollar.

EURO HEADLINES:

• After a month of broadly improving sentiment, last week saw Eurozone bond markets start to lose their nerve again. Performances were mixed with Spanish spreads over German Bunds rising modestly, but significantly back over 200bps. Irish spreads also rose further as Finance Minister Lenihan delayed bank recapitalisation, reawakening concerns for senior bond holders. Portugal saw the sharpest rise with yields on its ten-year debt appearing to make a decisive break above the psychologically important 7.00% following a poorly received syndication earlier in the week.
• Eurozone finance ministers have an opportunity to repair this damage as they come together for today's Eurozone finance minsters meeting (ahead of the full Ecofin meeting tomorrow). Today's meeting will give ministers Schaeuble and LaGarde the chance to convince their peers of the virtue of common Eurozone economic governance.
• Ahead of the meeting's conclusion today, the Eurozone posts industrial production for December.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD has benefited from a combination of outflows from Asia and other EM, rising yields and heavy short positioning in the last few days, and as long as US yields hold current high levels it is hard to oppose USD gains.
• The US trade deficit ballooned in 2010 by the largest amount seen in a decade. The Trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - hit $497.8bn lat year, up 32.8% on the year before, the biggest annual percentage gain since 2000.
• The pound slipped back against a broadly stronger US dollar on Friday amid a rise in risk aversion, briefly taking the price below $1.60. In a addition the recent spate of US economic data has been supportive for the greenback.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 11th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6026
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1851
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6070

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3522
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8437
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3559

POUND HEADLINES:

• As expected the BOE left interest rates on hold after the MPC meeting. However, this is very unlikely to halt speculation about a near term hike in rates. The BOE's announcement didn't give us any fresh information on the relative probabilities that they would give to downside risks to growth compared with the upside risks to inflation.
• Attention will now focus upon next week's Quarterly Inflation Report to see what that reveals about these topics. Then the following week we will see the publication of the minutes for yesterday's meeting which will tell us which way the 9 members of the MPC voted and whether there was any increase in January's two votes for an immediate rate hike.
• UK Producer Price Index Input for January month-on-month comes in at 1.7% beating expectations of 1.4%. The year-on-year figure is 13.4% beating expectations of 12.7%. UK PPI output for January month-on-month came in at 1.0% beating expectations of 0.5%. The year-on-year figure comes in at 4.8% beating expectations of 4.4%.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro is experiencing a few distractions of its own, with the succession of Trichet at the ECB helm generating a great deal of debate whether the currency and euribor/bund curve should be priced according to perhaps less hawkish credentials of the potential candidate to Weber.
• Portugal has denied it will struggle to raise capital from international investors after yields on Portuguese government debt hit record highs. Earlier, the ECB intervened to buy Portugal's debt after yields rose sharply. The rise in yields renewed concerns Portugal may need financial assistance.
• German CPI for January month-on-month comes in at -0.4% modestly higher than forecasts of -0.5%. The year on-year figure is 2.0% higher than expectations of 1.9%

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Today we have the US trade balance for December which is expected to show yet another huge deficit on the month. The dollar has been showing some strength of late on the back of stronger economic numbers. However, this data will highlight the continued massive trade gap between the US and the rest of the world and in particular China.
• Just as interesting as the overall balance will be the relative performance of exports and imports. US exports have been growing strongly but there is a risk that the December figure will be hit by the cold weather. A weak figure for exports or a strong one for imports would also hint at the possibility that the initial strong GDP gain for 2010 Q4 might be revised downward. The rise in Oil prices provides a further potential upside risk to the trade numbers.
• US posts $49.8 billion budget deficit in January, smaller than $56.2 billion expected. Prior reading was -$42.6 billion.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 10th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6051
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1773
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5979

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3633
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8493
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3572

POUND HEADLINES:

• The MPC announces its latest monetary policy decision at noon. It is widely expected that interest rates will remain at 0.5%, but two members voting for a rate hike last month with some others describing the decision as "finely balanced" adds some spice. Markets are pricing a small chance of a rise. An 'on hold' decision would likely see no accompanying statement and attention would shift to next week's Inflation Report
• Although the inflation projections here are likely to be higher in the short-term, the profile should still see inflation falling below target from next year as temporary price effects fall out.
• Ahead of today's decision we see December's industrial output. Official estimates for Q4 implied a rise in manufacturing output in December, which underpin the consensus call for a gain of 0.4%.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro showed general strength yesterday, though without any obvious reason. If anything this appears to be a continuation of the squaring of short EUR positions that we have seen in recent weeks, though focusing more on the crosses than the USD. This doesn't appear to have been triggered by any particularly positive news from the EU periphery - if anything the opposite is true - but for now the market focus is elsewhere, and as long as the focus is on risks of higher rates and inflation, positions based on these risks are likely to be unwound.
• Italian Industrial Production for December month-on-month comes in at 0.3% beating expectations of 0.2%. The year-on-year figure is 5.4% beating expectations of 4.5%.
• The pound dropped half a cent yesterday against a broadly firmer euro although the price is recovering this morning. This followed from UK trade deficit figures which did not do the pound any favours.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Bernanke's comments yesterday produced little net reaction in the USD, though the main thrust of his statement that high unemployment and low inflation still justified very easy Fed policy was initially seen as USD bearish. He provided no real justification for the statement that the USD looked "a little more attractive", but may have been referring to the recent modest movement of yield spreads in the USD's favour.
• Sterling tracked a rise in the euro/US dollar pair, but gains were limited as traders noted that the market may have overestimated the chance of UK interest rate rise this month, heightening the downside risks to the pound.
• In the US today later this afternoon we have Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories along with International Trade Figures tomorrow.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 9th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6090
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1790
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5921

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3646
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8481
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3503

POUND HEADLINES:

• The pound slid against most major currencies yesterday following chancellor George Osborne's announcement on an increase in Britain's tax levy on banks which has dented investor sentiment towards the UK. Following this news the pound dropped below 1.18 and 1.61 against the euro and dollar respectively.
• Attention will turn to the rebalancing of the UK economy today as the final external trade figures for 2010 are published. However, against much vaunted hopes at the start of last year for net trade to contribute to economic growth, this was not the case.
• UK total trade balance (GBP/Min) for December in at -4831 missing expectations of -4000.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro is likely to be constrained following comments from ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet last week dampening expectations of a near-term rate hike. The big next focus for the Eurozone will be Germany and France fourth quarter GDP figures due for release on Tuesday next week.
• German exports rose 0.5% in December to round out a year of strong growth, increasing 18.5% in 2010, latest figures have shown.
• German imports fell unexpectedly in December, down 2.3% on November, versus analysts' forecasts for slight growth. Nevertheless, for the whole of 2010, imports rose by 20%, the Federal Statistics Office has said.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• China's rate hike briefly put the skids back under the dollar but a general lack of conviction characterised trading conditions in Asia which is understandable considering the event risk surrounding Fed chairman Bernanke's testimony today.
• The main event for financial markets today is Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony to the House Budget Committee in the US. Watchers though will primarily be scouring for clues about the developing economic outlook and future monetary policy, as, although a considered discussion about the challenging fiscal backdrop is interesting; the threat
  of any immediate action is minimal.
• The US dollar and Swiss Franc were among the weaker currencies yesterday following an ease of tensions in Egypt which has lead investors away from safe-haven currencies.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 8th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6120
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1842
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5844

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3609
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8442
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3376

POUND HEADLINES:

• The BRC sales data overnight provided another strong January indicator to encourage the UK hawks and GBP bulls, but it is worth noting that after last February's recovery from snow four out of the next five months showed decline since the PMI.
• Cautious buyers and sellers failed to give any fresh impetus to the housing market in January. All the key elements of the UK market pointed to a 'sluggish' start to the year, Rics have said.
• It was a fairly quiet day yesterday with the pound closing virtually unchanged against most major currencies ahead of Thursday's Bank of England policy announcement.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The lack of any concrete proposals from the EU Summit last Friday have helped to undermine sentiment for the Euro, even though there was no major turn in sentiment towards the periphery. The market is for the moment prepared to trust that the ESM proposal at the end of March will be sufficiently credible to bolster the Euro and prevent a renewed attack on peripheral sovereign debt markets, but there are nevertheless few
  looking to open long positions at this level.
• While yesterday's 3.45% drop in December German factory orders was much worse than expected, economists attach little significance to this report for today's German production data. The fall in orders follows an exceptionally strong reading the previous month and does nothing to change the underlying view that manufacturing conditions continue to recover.
• Sterling briefly touched a level above 1.19 yesterday following a disappointing reading of factory based orders in Germany, which gave credence to the view that the ECB is unlikely to be shifting policy anytime soon.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• It was relatively quiet day yesterday for the pound/dollar following on from Friday's US non-farms payrolls data. Although the report was a sign of improving conditions in the US labour market, rising levels of risk appetite combined with reduced tensions in Egypt is applying some downward pressure on safer currencies.
• Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify tomorrow at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.
• Today we have the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index released in the US this afternoon although it is not expected this will cause much market excitement.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Monday 7th February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6128
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1879
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5912

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3578
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8417
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3402

POUND HEADLINES:

• The MPC decision on Thursday obviously casts a shadow over the market. The 20% odds of a rate hike will appeal some investors to hold on to their coveted long positions in the hope that the MPC does catch the market cold.
• December industrial production data are published the same day, where forecasts stand at +0.4% month-on-month.
• BRC retail sales are due tomorrow (for January so first read of VAT impact).

EURO HEADLINES:

• The ECB's Nowotny allegedly 'accidentally' disclosed the ECB's updated CPI forecast one month ahead of publication, but it is ECB colleague Weber who will steal the spotlight today. Though Trichet seemed to backtrack last week from his (hawkish) January council comments, Me Weber has been cast in an uncharacteristic conciliatory position and so it may fall to the Bupa president to pour more cold water on bubbling rate hike expectations potentially taking out a few more EUR longs.
• Market attention today turns to German factory orders data for December, where we look for a month-on-month decline of 1.3% following a hefty 5.2% increase in November.
• European Sentix Investor Confidence for February comes in at 16.7 beating expectations of 14.0

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Focus will be on global rebalancing, with both China and the US due to release their latest external trade figures. The data are expected to make for mixed reading. While China's trade surplus is forecast
  to show a further decline, there is also a clear risk of a spike in the US trade deficit as sever weather disruption(clearly evident in last week's payrolls data) temporarily depresses US exports.
• US unemployment fell in January to 9% from 9.4%. It is the second such monthly fall, after unemployment fell from a rate of 9.8% in November.
• This afternoon we have NFIB small business Optimism Index in the US.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 3rd February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6249
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1791
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6026

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3782
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8482
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3594

POUND HEADLINES:

• After falling sharply in December due to weather disruptions, UK Manufacturing and Construction PMI surveys rebounded in January. UK Services PMI has also come in this morning a lot better than expected at 54.5 versus an expected 51.3.
• Following yesterdays impressive Construction data the pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in three months. The index rose to 53.7 in January, beating forecasts of 49.9. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
• UK official reserves come in at -384 versus 976 previous.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The key highlight in the euroarea today is the ECB's interest rate announcement and in particular the subsequent press conference. President Trichet is expected to repeat the theme of rising inflationary risks, although stop well short of signalling any imminent change, particularly before the key quarterly meeting in March.
• Eurozone consumer prices accelerated to a two year high in January and pipeline price pressures are already evident. With oil prices having risen further in January, there is significant risk that headline consumer prices will accelerate further.
• Eurozone Retail Sales come in at -0.6% month-on-month and -0.9% year-on-year versus 0.5% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year expected.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• While markets remain preoccupied with Friday's non-farm payrolls on Friday, the US ISM non-manufacturing index today is expected to reconfirm the continued recovery in the services sector. Although we expect the index to be broadly unchanged in January at 57.2, compared to 57.1 in previous month, this still signals that the sector is expanding.
• A fairly static session yesterday and general apathy to commit to a strong directional view overnight does not come as a surprise as investors lighten up ahead of the payrolls release tomorrow. Having said this, the dollarindex has found a more stable footing on the back of the manufacturing ISM and so a stronger non-manufacturing ISM this afternoon should translate into higher UST yields.
• With the political unrest in Egypt taking another turn, we think risk assets are not going anywhere until tomorrow afternoon and could be challenged by a hawkish ECB.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 2nd February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6227
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1726
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6044

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3838
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8527
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3684

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today we have the construction PMI survey. December's activity index dropped below the breakeven '50' level to 49.1 for the first time since February 2010. January's survey should provide a gauge of the weather impact. This in turn may provide something of a precursor for tomorrow's more significant services PMI survey.
• You cannot argue with the strong January manufacturing PMI but the disparity with very weak December mortgage lending and M4 money supply data (snow related?) puts the UK economy on two different tracks but is a conundrum that will test the MPC's patience.
• UK manufacturing in January expanded at its fastest pace since records began in 1992. Employment in the manufacturing sector also rose at the fastest pace since the records began.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Speculation surrounding an enhanced EFSF is inevitably getting positive traction in EU periphery debt and EUR crosses and though one could argue that on this basis EUR/USD should be trading closer to 1.40.
• Unemployment in the eurozone remained at 10% in December, unchanged from the month before. The figure for the European Union as a whole also remained unchanged from November at 9.6%.
• Yesterday sterling reached up to 1.1750 early trading and closed the day virtually unchanged. This morning pound/euro continues to hover around 1.17.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Today's economic calendar provides something of a breather in an otherwise busy week. Top of the slate will be the US ADP employment survey. This is often characterised as the least worst indicator of US non-farm payrolls. Last month, the ADP struggles to live up to even this description.
• Yesterday's ISM recorded a sharp rise in the employment index to 61.7. Tomorrow's non-manufacturing index, which is more important as it covers a larger workforce, has been more subdued than its manufacturing counterpart.
• US factory output increased at its fastest pace in seven years last month. It was the 18th month in a row that the sector has shown expansion. The latest reading is the highest since May 2004.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 1st February 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6117
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1721
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6024

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3660
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8527
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3666

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today's UK manufacturing PMI will provide an early taster of how conditions in the sector are faring in Q1. Manufacturing has been a rare source of strength in recent months, with the headline PMI rising to a near 17-year high of 58.3 in December.
• Attention will also be on the UK M4 money supply figures. Although there has been some improvement in the underlying measure, the headline decline in M4 still makes a strong argument for the MPC not being panicked into an early interest rate increase.
• Sterling was exceptionally strong yesterday, primarily it seems because of end month demand, but it may may also have been boosted by Weale's justification of his hawkish January MPC stance in yesterday's press.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro has held up well under pressure from Mid-east risk concerns, and widening yield spreads over the US combined with a decline in EU periphery pressure, underlined by the absence of any ECB buying of bonds last week for the first time in 3 months, suggests further upside scope.
• Trichet is speaking today but is unlikely to reveal anything ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, though this if anything probably carries a risk that current hawkish market expectations are pared
  back.
• Eurozone PMI manufacturing for January comes in at 57.3 beating expectations of 56.9

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Today we have the release of the January manufacturing ISM in the US. After yesterdays strong jump in the Chicago PMI the odds of a strong improvement in the ISM have shortened.
• There are risks that the "march of a million" planned for today in Alexandra reignites market jitters about the Egyptian situation, and this would tend to benefit the USD, especially since yesterday's activity saw the USD come under pressure for month end hedging reasons.
• Nevertheless, the risks are two way, since rate spreads have moved against the USD in the last two days so the USD is still vulnerable if risk appetite returns in earnest. Otherwise, there will be some focus on ISM, particularly the employment component ahead of the employment report on Friday since the last reading was disappointingly weak.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790