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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Monday 31st January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5864
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1640
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5970

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3629
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8591
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3720

POUND HEADLINES:

• Despite the World Economic Forum, the State of the Union address and the FOMC announcement, It was the UK that provided most shockwaves to markets last week with the startling collapse in Q4 economic activity, followed by news that the MPC nest contained another hawk.
• A dangerous week lies ahead for GBP with the PMIs obviously taking centre stage and taking on added importance following the collapse in consumer confidence to levels last seen around Q1-09.
• The confidence of UK consumers in the economy and their finances suffered its biggest monthly drop in 16 years. Rising VAT was a key factor behind the "astonishing" confidence fall, the GfK NOP Social Research report said. More government austerity measures and the surprise contraction in the economy meant talk of a double dip recession was "unavoidable", the study said.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The eurozone posts preliminary estimates of January's CPI. Notwithstanding the surprisingly soft reading in last week's German numbers, we see the risk of rising food, energy and other commodity prices pushing the currency area's rate higher, with analysts expected forecast for a rise to 2.5% from 2.2%.
• preliminary numbers for Spain precede the release of the eurozone aggregate and will contain further clues. This will be particularly relevant ahead of the ECB rate announcement and president Trichet's pressconference.
• German Retail Sales for December month-on-month comes in at -0.3% missing expectations of 2.0%

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• This week the focus shifts back to the international scene with US non-farm payrolls claiming the usual top spot on the economic calendar, closely followed by the ISM surveys and comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke.
• In the US, It is expected that we will see ongoing evidence of a strengthening recovery. Analysts forecast a continued firm background for household incomes, which should prove supportive of spending in January.
• US economic growth accelerated in the last three months of 2010 to an annualised rate of 3.2%. A rise in consumer spending contributed to the growth, as did falling imports.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides
FX Broker
kris@imsfx.co.uk
www.imsfx.co.uk
Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 28th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5877
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1577
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6005

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3714
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8637
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3825

POUND HEADLINES:

• At one point yesterday the market had returned to pre-GDP levels in pricing UK rate expectations, but short sterling moved off the lows by the end of the day, and we suspect it is becoming clearer that the Q4 decline in GDP is not entirely snow related, and that Martin Weales vote for higher rates in January is unlikely to be repeated in February.
• Sterling should consequently now be vulnerable to renewed declines, especially after the consumer confidence data overnight, with the 1.60 level in GBP/USD now looking hard to breach on a sustained basis, especially since the comparison of today's US GDP with UK GDP will not benefit sterling sentiment.
• Next week in the UK we have indices measuring activity in three key sectors - manufacturing, services and construction - are due for release. This will likely keep sterling vulnerable to the downside.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Bini-Smaghi helped sustain the euro positive tone yesterday with his insistence that import price pressures cannot be ignored, even though the German CPI data hardly gave any reason for inflation concern.
• At the same time, a modest widening in EU periphery spreads gave less reason to be significantly EU positive. This is still the key focus over the medium term, and with EUR/USD hitting some key resistance levels yesterday and the ECB meeting and EU summit next week the upside is looking less attractive.
• In the Eurozone today, M3 money supply figures for December are likely to show the pace of growth accelerating, aided by improvements in private sector lending.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar remains under steady downward pressure, though we are approaching some important target levels against a range of currencies.
• Today's GDP data will be the focus, and the USD will probably suffer on any as expected or slightly weaker than expected data. With a light calendar elsewhere today, the spotlight for today falls firmly on the US economy. Led by strong growth in consumer spending and exports, we are above the consensus in expecting a firmer reading for Q4 economic growth of 3.8% on an annualised basis.
• The final estimate of University of Michigan confidence for December is expected to show a slight upward revision on the back of recent tax cut extensions announced by President Obama.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 27th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5890
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1609
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6021

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3687
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8612
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3798

POUND HEADLINES:

• The MPC minutes brought temporary relief in GBP/G10 but the downside growth risks may well be highlighted again this morning when the CBI distributive trends survey for January is released. This is the first release of Q1 and so any evidence that retail turnover and placed orders are drifting down may bring sterling sellers back into the fold.
• Yesterdays MPC minutes revealed that Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale has joined Andrew Sentance in voting for an interest rate hike. For most members the risks to inflation "in the medium term had probably shifted upwards," the minutes said. This was before Tuesday's shock news that GDP growth has contracted and a warning that inflation could hit 5%.
• The number of mortgages approved for house buyers by the UK's main banks fell by 10% in 2010. The BBA says its members approved just 400,000 mortgages between them. That meant the number of approvals was at its lowest level in 11 years, apart from 2008.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Eurozone survey data have remained buoyant in recent months, both at a business and consumer level. It is expected a slight improvement in today's releases of economic, industrial and services confidence for January.
• The preliminary estimate of German harmonised CPI could steal the limelight however, with the annual rate predicted to breach 2% in January for the first time since October 2008
• Euro area CPI hit 2.2% in December - also a two-year high. The ECB's Bini-Smaghi and Tumpel-Gugerell will take to the stage today.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index and risk assets continued to move in opposite direction overnight. The Feds decision to leave policy unchanged and frame the economy in a slightly more upbeat context added some momentum to the sell USD/buy risk trade, though risk (currencies) right now appear to stretch only as far as SEK and NOK.
• Today's December US durable goods orders data will provide an important final piece of the jigsaw as markets look ahead to advance US Q4 GDP on Friday.
• The Fed yesterday again highlighted its concerns about the elevated level of unemployment. Positively, the housing market also looks to be on an improving trend, albeit from a very low base. Pending home sales have risen at a strong pace in recent months and we look for another solid rise in December based on improving general confidence.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 26th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5822
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1538
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5859

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3712
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8666
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3746

POUND HEADLINES:

• Yesterdays GDP shock diminishes Bank of England minutes impact. Although the latest GDP figure has clearly been impacted by severe end 2010 weather conditions it looks set to underpin UK rate expectations for the foreseeable future.
• Its hard to find anything positive to say about yesterdays UK GDP data. The weather effects don't account for the weakness in services in October and November, and the concern for sterling must now be that the rise in inflation in December and the rise in VAT coming in January will further squeeze growth, so that even the revised market of an August/September rate hike starts to look too hawkish.
• At a time when the Governments austerity measures are increasingly on consumers' radar screens, such a softening in the growth trajectory, or at least the starting point for 2011 GDP deliberations, should leave the market in little doubt as to the profile for official rates. Following Mervyn King's latest speaking today's BOE minutes will offer some additional 'take' on the current centre of gravity on the MPC. But, while the current inflation backdrop is hardly comfortable from a policy maker's perspective, the increasing squeeze on real disposable incomes is unlikely to be entertained in the upcoming pay round negotiations. Current SONIA pricing indicates that the first 25bp hike in the Bank Rate has been pushed back to the start of Q4 from mid Q3.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Still no bad news for the Euro, though a few will look at the UK GDP data yesterday and worry that the apparent strength of the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone may not translate into particularly strong strong Q4 GDP, with the services PMIs showing a modest drop in the quarter.
• The dominant theme is still the fading of periphery panic, and there is nothing that will obviously derail the more positive tone on the calendar today.
• German Import Price Index for December month-on-month comes in at 2.3% higher than forecasts of 1.2%.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index continued to drift lower yesterday, in spite of stronger US consumer confidence data, and looks likely to remain soft into today's FOMC meeting as the market retains a broadly "risk on" tone. The USD inverse correlation with risk is likely to be retained as long as the Fed's retains its dovish stance.
• Tonight's FOMC minutes are therefore important, but recent comments from Bernanke and others don't suggest that the Fed is about to change its tone with unemployment still close to the highs of the cycle.
• Today at 3pm GMT we also have USD New Home Sales for December

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 25th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5790
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1618
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5868

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3590
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8607
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3657

POUND HEADLINES:

• Volatile conditions will put GBP to test over the next 24 hours as investors take stock of the prelim Q4 GDP release and BOE governor King's speech today, followed by the MPC minutes tomorrow.
• The UK's economy suffered a shock contraction in the last three months of 2010. The economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter, the Office for National statistics (ONS) said.
• The pound has continued to drop against the euro to a new three week low yesterday and continues to fall this morning following the latest GDP figures. Now trading below 1.1600.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The purple patch continues for Euro bulls and after taking the better of 1.3635, the scene is now set for a move up to 1.3786, the November 22nd high.
• German GFK consumer confidence survey for February comes in at 5.7 beating expectations of 5.4.
• Tough talk about keeping inflation in check from European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet also helped spur euro rally. Further support for the euro today is likely to come as buyers queue up to buy eurozone debt. Europe's bail-out is expected to be flooded with orders.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index slipped below 78.0 yesterday, bringing losses since January 2010 to 4%. The index stayed soft overnight in Asia, and failure to find support around the 78.5389 Fibo area does inevitably not inspire a great amount of confidence. Direction now depends on the Fed statement tomorrow.
• Sterling managed to hold just below 1.60 yesterday but the price has fallen this morning following UK GDP figures.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Monday 24th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5955
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1759
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6129

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3568
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8504
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3716

POUND HEADLINES:

• Sterling will be a big focus this week with Q4 GDP and Bank of England governor Mervyn King speaking on Tuesday. We also have MPC minutes on Wednesday.
• Today Andrew Sentance speaks, and will no doubt be as hawkish as Posen was dovish on Friday, but we continue to expect a less hawkish tone to emerge in UK rates markets over the week, and this should mean sterling is biased lower.
• The pound dropped a further half a cent on Friday against the stronger euro following on from strong German data. A German business confidence index reported a higher-than-expected figures adding support to the already buoyant single currency.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The Euro is enjoying a period of relative calm as the EU periphery problems are put on the back burner and the market focuses on the strength of the German economy and the possibility of higher rates in the Eurozone later in the year.
• There is potential for the EU periphery issues to rear their ugly head again at any point, but there are no obvious triggers today, and with only Spanish T-bills and Italian index-linked to be auctioned this week (other than German debt) the more positive tone seems likely to continue (for now).
• Today's eurozone preliminary PMI survey results for January will go a long way in reconfirming the current economic strength of core countries such as Germany and France. There are a number of reasons to
  be optimistic, in particular the stronger-than-expected German IFO last Friday, which was driven higher by increased future economic optimism. In addition, the French business confidence and own production indicators also exceeded consensus estimates.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• As equities bounced from their lows on Friday the USD resumed its downtrend, and the USD index has held below the 78.80 level where it bottomed twice in December.
• The euro situation is far from riskless, but the market now appears to be focusing on prospects for yield rises rather than credit risk, and the combination of low US inflation and high unemployment means the USD will remain under pressure while this is the focus, at least as long as risk is "on".
• The pound regained lost ground against the dollar on Friday but pushing beyond $1.60 today could be a big ask with investors regarding the level as a good selling opportunity. This week, focus will be on the Fed's meeting starting tomorrow with the policy announcement on Thursday.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 21st January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5902
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1756
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6102

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3525
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8505
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3695

POUND HEADLINES:

• UK retail sales volumes rose only modestly in December 2009, dashing market expectations for a much stronger outturn on the back of shoppers bringing purchases forward ahead of the return of VAT to 17.5%.
  However, whatever December's outturn, the 2011 landscape does not look welcoming for UK consumers, with larger taxes, soaring fuel and energy prices, reduced disposable income and, now, potentially an
  earlier-than-expected hike in interest rates to factor in alongside deep fiscal retrenchment.
• We look for UK consumer spending growth to slump to just 0.3% in 2011 after quite resilient 1.03% gain last year. However, should interest rates rise sooner than we currently expect (we forecast a first hike in Q4), this figure could comfortably slip into negative territory. The implications for UK economic growth are clear.

EURO HEADLINES:

• A fairly unexciting overnight session for Euro crosses with the exception of EUR/CHF as 1.30 gives way supported by budding optimism that periphery bond purchases by the EFSF could finally restore some stability. The IFO tops the calendar and after stellar gains of the past few months, the risk now must be that sentiment is starting to level off, though it may be early days for German exporters to feel any pushback from policy tightening in EM.
• The German economy faces fundamentally different challenges in 2011. However, its export-led growth model continues to motor along, underpinned by resurgent global demand. There are positive signs that household spending is reviving and GDP growth prospects are upbeat for 2011.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index found support in the 78.538 area as equities and commodities continue to suffer, but with the calendar fairly light today, we suspect follow through buying may well be absent as investors look ahead to next week's FOMC.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 20th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5988
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1855
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6060

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3486
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8435
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3546

POUND HEADLINES:

• GBP/USD has failed to hold gains above 1.60 thus far, and Friday's retail sales data will probably be the next potential market moving event. We still see next weeks Q4 GDP and MPC minutes as key, but we continue to believe that the majority of the MPC are prepared to look through the recent increase in inflation. This should mean that UK yields ease from their current highs and bring down sterling with them.
• Following the wave of Chinese economic data released overnight, today sees the focus of attention turn mainly to the UK and US, the latest CBI quarterly trends survey is released.
• UK unemployment rose by 49,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of November, the ONS revealed yesterday. Most analysts as well as the government, expect the unemployment total to continue rising, in large part due to the spending cuts designed to cut the budget deficit.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Plenty of rumours and counter-rumours about plans to effectively restructure Greek debt failed to have much impact on the Euro, but the underlying positive tone remained. While the market is sceptical that there will be any near term solution which will restore confidence in the periphery, the rumours do suggest that the EU is at least addressing the issues.
• There is unlikely to be any major development today though the 12:15PM Van Rompuy press conference will be focus.
• In the eurozone, today's data calendar is more limited with the exception of December German producer prices.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar recovered overnight, helped by the weaker equity market, having been soft since US yields topped up, while talk of increased diversification from China and others has also weighed.
• The release of US housing market data continues today with December existing home sales. If anything, these have staged a modest recovery since the decline following the expiry of the homebuyers' tax credit last year.
• Other US economic data scheduled for today include initial jobless claims where we look for a fall of 10k to a level of 435k, along with January's Philadelphia Fed Survey.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 19th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5984
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1877
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5906

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3458
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8419
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3392

POUND HEADLINES:

• Hot on the heels of Decembers 3.7% inflation reading and the UK Chancellors expression of 'huge concern' over rising prices yesterday, today's UK labour market release assumes added importance.
• Fears that rising inflation concerns may force the Bank of England into a monetary policy response only make sense if wage inflation responds to rising inflation expectations. This would translate a short-term price spike to medium-term inflation pressure, hence today's news of the latest pay round (for November) will be closely monitored.
• Looking at the jobs numbers, today's report is expected to further highlight why the MPC is unlikely to respond to the recent rise in inflation by tightening monetary policy. A softer labour market tone reflects an underlying economic weakness, which the MPC will be mindful of in the face of the VAT rise and the prospect of a fiscal squeeze in the months ahead.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Higher yields and receding concerns over periphery debt are supportive of the Euro but bolder statements of intent from the EU will be required to get investors looking beyond the short-term bounce and re-engage in (bullish) longer term tactical plays.
• The Ecofin/Eurogroup meeting proved that we are still way off an accord and until Germany can be convinced it is expected gains will fizzle out once the broader risk rally fades.
• On Friday we have German IFO business climate index.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index has sunk to the lower end of the 7 week trading range and the next few trading sessions are likely to be pivotal whether the index stages a bounce back over 80.0 or instead momentum accelerates for a deeper retracement towards 77.85.
• US housing starts and building permits for December risk a softer than consensus outturn in the light of some weather disruption.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 18th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6041
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1973
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6044

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3399
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8363
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3404

POUND HEADLINES:

• The CPI rose by a record 1% month-on-month in December pushing inflation up to 3.7% year-on-year, significantly above the median for a 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% rise on the year. The December month-on-month rise was the largest monthly gain ever seen in the index. Transport costs led the increase rising by a record monthly amount due to higher airfares and petrol.
• Core inflation also edged up to 2.9% from 2.7%, also above the median. For Q4, Inflation stood at 3.4% above the BOE's November Inflation forecast for 3.2%. Overall, this report will add significantly to Inflation fears and it is likely to boost expectations that the BOE will need to respond by raising rates earlier than previously expected.
• The recent rise VAT rise from 17.5% to 20% could further fuel Inflation, which has now remained above the 2% target by one percentage point or more for 13 months.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The EU Finance ministers' meeting has so far produced little of note, and it looks like the reasonable results from last weeks auctions have made the politicians assume they have time to come up with new initiatives.
• This may be a misapprehension, as the auctions were bolstered by EUR 2.3bn of ECB buying in the proceeding week, and the ECB may not provide this much support indefinitely. Nevertheless, ZEW may provide some more euro support today, and the Spanish bill auctions will be ignored, unless they are surprisingly poor.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• There is potential for the USD to gain some support from Empire Manufacturing Index today, which is the first of the January numbers which typically provide some lead on the ISM.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 17th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5844
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1956
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6017

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3252
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8363
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3396

POUND HEADLINES:

• House prices have dropped in 5 of the past 7 months according to Rightmove so it us no surprise that GBP didn't show great interest in the paltry January gain reported overnight.
• A big week ahead for UK data with the opportunity perhaps of stronger CPI tomorrow worth selling into ahead of expected disappointing labour market and retail sales stats later in the week.
• Although the Bank of England decided to keep policy unchanged last week, we will have to wait for the MPC meeting minutes (due next week) to see how close the decision was. The minutes of the December MPC meeting included a forewarning that CPI inflation could well reach 4% by the spring and that for most members of the Committee the balance of risks to inflation had shifted upwards.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Technically, the market remains short EUR and as the 2-day EU Ecofin meeting gets underway and Germany reiterates its opposition to any expanded EFSF, we think the single currency could rapidly see ECB induced gains evaporate.
• The Economist newspaper has no reputation for causing tremors but its call for a debt restructuring in Friday's edition will not go unnoticed in EU political circles at the IMF prepares undertakes a 'routine' mission to Spain.
• Rising fuel prices helped push annual eurozone inflation up to 2.2% in December, from 1.9% in November. On Thursday last week, the ECB left interest rates unchanged for the 20th month in a row at its monthly meeting.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• A painful week dragged the dollar index all the way down last week to the low point of the 7-week range and one must now ask the question whether a break of the 79.0 level is imminent.
• A relatively quiet week for US data is headed by key readings on the housing market, with new starts (Wednesday) and existing homes sales (Thursday) both due.
• US retails sales rose in December for the fifth consecutive month, driven by holiday season demand, official figures have suggested. Sales grew by 0.6% last month compared with November, according to the US Commerce Department.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 14th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5835
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1841
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5930

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3404
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8464
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3485

POUND HEADLINES:

• Sterling fell back against an all conquering EUR yesterday, but the underlying positive tone to GBP/USD remained, and looks set to persist for a bit as the high December CPI print approaches next week and the talk of higher European rates helps sustain recent UK yield rises.
• Initial resistances for GBP/USD at 1.5910 and 1.5935. There's nothing to hurt GBP today but it remains vulnerable to evidence of weak service sector growth.
• Today's data releases are firmly anchored around inflation conditions on both sides of the Atlantic. Given the sizeable output gap and relatively weak employment conditions both in the US and UK, the inflation focus is less about wages and more about imports, especially in light of the recent rises in crude oil and food prices.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Euro strength yesterday was partly about a modestly hawkish tone from ECB president 'Trichet' on inflation, partly about stops being triggered as the Spanish and Portuguese auctions turned out to be reasonable and EU periphery credit gained support from talk of German support for amendments to the EFSF.
• Trichet's comments were not especially surprising, and at this stage we would not expect the rally to extend far. The recent range top at 1.3433 in EUR/USD should hold, and renewed declines may be seen in other more risk positive EUR crosses.
• German CPI for December comes in as expected at 1.0%. The year-on-year figure also met expectations of 1.7%

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD weakened yesterday as the initial claims data disappointed, risk appetite remained positive and the Euro staged a sharp recovery. Most of the action in the EUR/USD was about the Euro rather than the USD, but the early euphoria about the US economy this year may be giving way to a dull assessment, despite Bernanke's comments overnight, and this won't play well for the USD if the generally more positive economic tone is more evident elsewhere, especially as other central banks are sounding much more hawkish.
• In the US, rising energy and food prices should have had little effect on the headline CPI figure, partially mitigated by a firm US dollar in December. It is expected little movement month-on-month in either core or headline series for December. The CPI core forecast for the year to December is expected to be negligible 0.8%.
• Other key data from the US today will include December retail sales, which could prove to surprise to the down side given poor winter weather conditions in the North East during the holiday season.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 13th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5757
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1975
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5808

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3158
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8350
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3200

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today we have the Bank of England interest rate decision although it is expected that the Bank rate and APF target will remain unchanged.
• Central bank meetings dominate the outlook for today. From the MPC's perspective, the latest set of minutes saw the Committee warn that risks to inflation had 'probably shifted upwards', an observation that has sent shock waves through short-dated interest rates. Whilst the risks are acknowledged posed by inflation, It is expected it would take a significant second-round inflation effect over the coming months to encourage the MPC to tighten policy .
• Novembers industrial activity is released ahead of this announcement. It is expected another buoyant month for manufacturing (up 0.6% on the month, consensus 0.4%) based on strong survey evidence. However, disappointing oil export data yesterday pose some downside risks to the forecast of a 1.0% gain in industrial output (consensus 0.5%).

EURO HEADLINES:

• It was quite a smooth takedown of two Portuguese auctions calmed nerves yesterday, with China admittedly playing a increasingly significant influence.
• Spain and Italy are two of the PIGS tapping the market today.
• The ECB will provide more of a market focus today. This reflects no greater likelihood of policy change, but simply a keen attention on Eurozone developments, particularly in the light of Spanish and Italian debt auctions this morning, and the opportunity the ECB press conference provides for further updates.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD has been a sideshow this week to commodities and China/EU bond supply and it is not expected to change meaningfully over the next 48 hours.
• PPI, initial claims and foreign trade due today followed by Bernanke's speech on small business lending.
• Sterling rose yesterday against the dollar to a one month high following positive sentiment after the Portuguese bond auction and speculation over the timing of an interest rate rise in the UK.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 12th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5656
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.2006
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5784

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3038
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8328
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3145

POUND HEADLINES:

• Sterling is looking well supported by a combination of rising UK rate expectations, some paring back of long USD positions, and persistent negative EUR sentiment. UK rate expectations may well continue for a little while, especially if next weeks CPI is strong, and for the moment this is seen as GBP positive, though in reality real UK rates remain the lowest of the major currencies, suggesting limited scope for GBP gains on this basis in the longer run.
• In terms of economic data, the UK trade figures are released today. Consistent with strong readings from the PMI and CBI surveys, we look for a narrowing in the visible trade balance to -£8.2 bn in November from -£8.5 bn in October. It is expected this trend will gather momentum over the coming year, as exporters benefit from sterling weakness and domestic demand remains soft.
• A new study has revealed that the jobs market is 'on the road to recovery', with a very strong rise in demand for staff. The survey of recruitment consultants and employers in December found permanent staff vacancies rising at their fastest level in four months. KPMG warns the future recovery is uncertain, as the governments austerity measures take effect.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Today's Portuguese auction has been so well flagged it would be a major surprise if it were not gobbled up very easily. This is no doubt expected by the majority, but there may still be scope for a EUR bounce on the news. Tomorrow's Spanish auction will then be the instant focus, but this is likely to be similarly easily funded.
• Portugal is set to issue bonds due in 2014 and 2020 in a bid to raise between 750 million euros and 1.25 billion euros respectively.
• Portugal is likely to remain under pressure to accept financial assistance from the EU and IMF. In particular, investors remain nervous over the country's ability to meet its 2011 fiscal target.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• USD gains were limited to the JPY and CHF yesterday as risk appetite recovered after the dip in equities on Monday. There should be scope for a further risk recovery today if, as seems likely, the Portuguese auction attracts plenty of demand, but upside for the USD now looks more limited on such news as USD/JPY rallies tend to need rising US yields to drive them.
• Sterling/Dollar has been very steady this week although the pound is slowly climbing for its fourth consecutive day currently trading above 1.5650
• There are a number of US releases this afternoon although nothing major. Primary focus will be on the eurozone as debt auctions get underway.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - 11th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5526
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.2017
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5797

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.2919
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8321
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3144

POUND HEADLINES:

• It is another light day for economic data, with only a few second tier surveys due for release. Following the overnight publication of the UK BRC retail sales monitor, and the latest quarterly report from the BCC, early attention in the sterling markets will be on digesting prospects for consumer spending and the wider economy in light of these reports.
• As David Cameron noted over the weekend, the Bank of England faces a difficult judgement as it weighs up rising short-term inflation against leading indicators of growth, which remain mixed at best.
• Last weeks drop in the services PMI below the key 50 level, and yesterday's 1.3% drop in the Halifax house price index - the largest fall in three months - provide an early hint that the economy may be starting to cool.
• Pound/Euro interbank rate currently trading just above 1.20s. Key levels today are the 1.2050 benchmark. If the pound can break above this we feel we could see pound/euro hitting 1.2200. GBPEUR 1.2070 resistance level will be key as this will be the sell off point if breaks through benchmark rate.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The euro rebounded off a four month low but still remained under pressure. It was mentioned by Reuters that an unnamed but senior Eurozone official suggested that Germany and France among others have been pressuring Portugal to seek financial assistance from the EU and IMF before the governments funding situation grows worse.
• The single currency is under pressure in the days ahead as Spain, Portugal and Italy are scheduled to tap the debt market this week.
• The interest rate Portugal must pay to borrow funds hit a fresh high on Monday, as speculation mounted it would join Greece and the Irish Republic in needing an international bail-out. The yield on 10-year Portuguese government bonds rose for the fourth consecutive day, hitting 7.16%. The country's borrowing costs have surged as investors worried over its financial health.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• Fairly listless trading conditions yesterday were repeated in Asia overnight, with absence of data or events keeping the dollar index within touching distance of 81.444, the November 30th high.
• The dollar had a mixed trading session as it hit a four month high against the euro before retreating slightly.
• There was a lack of any notable economic data for Monday: but there was interesting Fed commentary. The Feds Lockhart noted that seemed to echo Bernanke and support his belief in maintaining the stimulus program. In addition to which was Janet Yellen's suggestion that it may take 7 years to get the Fed balance sheet back to normal.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - 10th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5486
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1996
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5642

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.2909
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8335
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3039

POUND HEADLINES:

• EUR/GBP broke lower on Friday, and the next target is the August low at 0.8140. This is mostly a EUR story, but Cameron's indication of concern about high inflation will be grist to the mill of the UK rate hawks, and may also provide some sterling support.
• In the spotlight this week are UK rate expectations. Several banks have increased their rate expectations in the past week, mainly because of the persistent inflation overshoot in the UK. Sterling appears to have benefited (though most of the trade-weighted gain has been due to EUR weakness rather than sterling strength). But we retain the view that UK inflation has been caused by a variety of factors that are likely to prove temporary, and the UK domestic demand strength is not one of them. Even if UK rates do rise in these circumstances, although this is unlikely given the trend in UK services PMI, rate hikes that are based on higher inflation rather than stronger growth should not be positive for the currency.
• UK house prices have continued to slip, falling by 1.3% in December from the previous month, figures from the Halifax have shown. The decline was less than falls seen in the second half of 2008.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The EU periphery debt saga continues, with Portugal now reported to be under pressure to accept a bailout, though this is been denied. This weeks Portuguese and Spanish auctions are near certain to attract decent demand, but will not change market sentiment on the Euro which continues to require some more permanent credible arrangements for dealing with debt problems if it is to stabilise.
• Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence for January comes in at 10.6 missing expectations of 11.8.
• French manufacturing for November month-on-month comes in at 2.2% beating expectations of 0.8%. The year-on-year figure is 5.1% beating expectations of 3.6%. French Industrial production for November
  month-on-month comes in at 2.3% beating expectations of 1.0%

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The employment report on Friday turned out to be as expected, with the revisions and the decline in unemployment compensating for a disappointing headline number. The underlying picture is still that US growth is at trend and consequently unemployment is unlikely to fall significantly any time soon.
• The US economy is showing signs of a "self-sustaining recovery", but is not growing fast enough to reduce high jobless levels, Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said. Mr Bernanke also said that it could take four to five years for the job market to normalise. As well as unemployment low inflation is also a concern.
• China's trade surplus shrank to an eight month low in December it has been confirmed. Imports increased by 25.6% on the same month a year earlier, leaving China with a surplus of $13.1bn ($8.4bn). Analysts said the data may give Beijing grounds to fend off US pressure for faster currency appreciation ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States next week. Many US politicians and economists accuse China of manipulating the value of the Yuan in order to boost its net exports at the expense of its trading partners.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - 7th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5459
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1902
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5577
EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.2988
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8401
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3088

POUND HEADLINES:

• UK services PMI was much weaker than expected yesterday,
  and although some of this looks to have been weather related, it also looks
  partially a genuine reflection of deteriorating service sector prospects.
• Sterling was largely unaffected as the market focused on
  Euro weakness, but the UK numbers do stand out as weak against a general set
  of strong numbers elsewhere in the last few weeks. Sterling is vulnerable,
  but for the moment EUR/GBP is targeting a test of the 0.8330 December low,
  and downside risks for sterling seem greater in cable.
• Demand for home loans is expected to fall in the coming
  months as the mortgage market continues to stagnate. Lenders believe that
  demand for mortgages for house purchases will drop in the first three months
  of 2011 as people delay decisions to move. These views are reported in the
  Bank of England's Credit Conditions Survey.

EURO HEADLINES:

• This morning it is expected that eurozone Q3 GDP growth
  will remain unchanged at 0.4% in the final estimate. The eurozone
  unemployment rate is also predicted to remain steady at 10.1% in November -
  a 12 year high.
• Data yesterday showed German manufacturing orders surged
  5.2% in November, putting an upside risk to our industrial production
  forecast.
• Euro periphery debt weakened further yesterday helped by
  an announcement of a Portuguese bond auction next week. It does seem likely
  that the Portuguese and Spanish bond auctions will be easily funded next
  week, but while there is potential for a Friday rally simply because
  the speculative market must now be quite short Euro, it is hard to see how
  the downtrend is turned without some more news on bailout arrangements
  across the Eurozone.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The US recovery has gained some traction according to
  recent data, with this weeks ISM surveys both showing a pick up in activity
  in December, underpinned by resurgent production and a sharp rise in new
  orders.
• Ahead of today's December Employment Report, most
  attention this week was taken by an astonishingly strong ADP report, showing
  a record (since 2001) 297,000 private sector jobs added in December.
• USD strength extended across the board yesterday as the
  combination of expectations of a strong employment report and more widening
  spreads in the EU periphery intensified the pressure on EUR/USD.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - 6th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5480
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1804
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5526

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3114
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8471
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3149

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today's focus will be on the UK services PMI for
  December. Markets will hope for a positive surprise similar to that seen in
  the manufacturing release earlier this week.
• UK services PMI is a dangerous number for sterling today.
  With data elsewhere on the positive side, a weak UK number could make
  sterling the funding currency of choice, given the hit still to come this
  year from fiscal austerity measures.
• Despite a disappointing reading of activity in the
  UK's construction sector, sterling gained a cent against a weaker euro
  yesterday and has touched a three-week high this morning.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Germany's factory orders for November are published today
  and are likely to show material signs of softening in the wake of more
  recent declines in key Asian PMI's.
• Also today it is expected the Eurozone business
  confidence indicator to rise in December based on stronger domestic surveys,
  while the final reading of consumer confidence is also due.
• While the Euro suffered initially on strong US data, the
  Euro tends to benefit in more benign risk conditions, and already is at
  quite extended levels against the commodity currencies which would normally
  benefit from risk positive news. While sovereign debt concerns remain,
  evidence of strong growth globally will tend to moderate these concerns too,
  and may limit negative sentiment towards the Euro.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• In the US, this weeks jobless claims will continue to
  drip-feed labour market news in the wake of yesterdays strong ADP payrolls
  survey.
• Claims fell to their lowest level in 2.5 years last week.
  This will be the final teaser before tomorrows payrolls release.
• The USD benefited from the rise in ADP employment, but
  sustained USD gains will require some genuine belief that US rates are set
  to rise this year, and that will require several months of payroll gains of
  more than 300k.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790