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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 21st January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5902
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1756
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6102

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3525
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8505
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3695

POUND HEADLINES:

• UK retail sales volumes rose only modestly in December 2009, dashing market expectations for a much stronger outturn on the back of shoppers bringing purchases forward ahead of the return of VAT to 17.5%.
  However, whatever December's outturn, the 2011 landscape does not look welcoming for UK consumers, with larger taxes, soaring fuel and energy prices, reduced disposable income and, now, potentially an
  earlier-than-expected hike in interest rates to factor in alongside deep fiscal retrenchment.
• We look for UK consumer spending growth to slump to just 0.3% in 2011 after quite resilient 1.03% gain last year. However, should interest rates rise sooner than we currently expect (we forecast a first hike in Q4), this figure could comfortably slip into negative territory. The implications for UK economic growth are clear.

EURO HEADLINES:

• A fairly unexciting overnight session for Euro crosses with the exception of EUR/CHF as 1.30 gives way supported by budding optimism that periphery bond purchases by the EFSF could finally restore some stability. The IFO tops the calendar and after stellar gains of the past few months, the risk now must be that sentiment is starting to level off, though it may be early days for German exporters to feel any pushback from policy tightening in EM.
• The German economy faces fundamentally different challenges in 2011. However, its export-led growth model continues to motor along, underpinned by resurgent global demand. There are positive signs that household spending is reviving and GDP growth prospects are upbeat for 2011.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index found support in the 78.538 area as equities and commodities continue to suffer, but with the calendar fairly light today, we suspect follow through buying may well be absent as investors look ahead to next week's FOMC.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 20th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5988
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1855
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6060

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3486
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8435
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3546

POUND HEADLINES:

• GBP/USD has failed to hold gains above 1.60 thus far, and Friday's retail sales data will probably be the next potential market moving event. We still see next weeks Q4 GDP and MPC minutes as key, but we continue to believe that the majority of the MPC are prepared to look through the recent increase in inflation. This should mean that UK yields ease from their current highs and bring down sterling with them.
• Following the wave of Chinese economic data released overnight, today sees the focus of attention turn mainly to the UK and US, the latest CBI quarterly trends survey is released.
• UK unemployment rose by 49,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of November, the ONS revealed yesterday. Most analysts as well as the government, expect the unemployment total to continue rising, in large part due to the spending cuts designed to cut the budget deficit.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Plenty of rumours and counter-rumours about plans to effectively restructure Greek debt failed to have much impact on the Euro, but the underlying positive tone remained. While the market is sceptical that there will be any near term solution which will restore confidence in the periphery, the rumours do suggest that the EU is at least addressing the issues.
• There is unlikely to be any major development today though the 12:15PM Van Rompuy press conference will be focus.
• In the eurozone, today's data calendar is more limited with the exception of December German producer prices.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar recovered overnight, helped by the weaker equity market, having been soft since US yields topped up, while talk of increased diversification from China and others has also weighed.
• The release of US housing market data continues today with December existing home sales. If anything, these have staged a modest recovery since the decline following the expiry of the homebuyers' tax credit last year.
• Other US economic data scheduled for today include initial jobless claims where we look for a fall of 10k to a level of 435k, along with January's Philadelphia Fed Survey.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Wednesday 19th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5984
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1877
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5906

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3458
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8419
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3392

POUND HEADLINES:

• Hot on the heels of Decembers 3.7% inflation reading and the UK Chancellors expression of 'huge concern' over rising prices yesterday, today's UK labour market release assumes added importance.
• Fears that rising inflation concerns may force the Bank of England into a monetary policy response only make sense if wage inflation responds to rising inflation expectations. This would translate a short-term price spike to medium-term inflation pressure, hence today's news of the latest pay round (for November) will be closely monitored.
• Looking at the jobs numbers, today's report is expected to further highlight why the MPC is unlikely to respond to the recent rise in inflation by tightening monetary policy. A softer labour market tone reflects an underlying economic weakness, which the MPC will be mindful of in the face of the VAT rise and the prospect of a fiscal squeeze in the months ahead.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Higher yields and receding concerns over periphery debt are supportive of the Euro but bolder statements of intent from the EU will be required to get investors looking beyond the short-term bounce and re-engage in (bullish) longer term tactical plays.
• The Ecofin/Eurogroup meeting proved that we are still way off an accord and until Germany can be convinced it is expected gains will fizzle out once the broader risk rally fades.
• On Friday we have German IFO business climate index.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The dollar index has sunk to the lower end of the 7 week trading range and the next few trading sessions are likely to be pivotal whether the index stages a bounce back over 80.0 or instead momentum accelerates for a deeper retracement towards 77.85.
• US housing starts and building permits for December risk a softer than consensus outturn in the light of some weather disruption.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Tuesday 18th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.6041
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1973
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6044

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3399
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8363
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3404

POUND HEADLINES:

• The CPI rose by a record 1% month-on-month in December pushing inflation up to 3.7% year-on-year, significantly above the median for a 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% rise on the year. The December month-on-month rise was the largest monthly gain ever seen in the index. Transport costs led the increase rising by a record monthly amount due to higher airfares and petrol.
• Core inflation also edged up to 2.9% from 2.7%, also above the median. For Q4, Inflation stood at 3.4% above the BOE's November Inflation forecast for 3.2%. Overall, this report will add significantly to Inflation fears and it is likely to boost expectations that the BOE will need to respond by raising rates earlier than previously expected.
• The recent rise VAT rise from 17.5% to 20% could further fuel Inflation, which has now remained above the 2% target by one percentage point or more for 13 months.

EURO HEADLINES:

• The EU Finance ministers' meeting has so far produced little of note, and it looks like the reasonable results from last weeks auctions have made the politicians assume they have time to come up with new initiatives.
• This may be a misapprehension, as the auctions were bolstered by EUR 2.3bn of ECB buying in the proceeding week, and the ECB may not provide this much support indefinitely. Nevertheless, ZEW may provide some more euro support today, and the Spanish bill auctions will be ignored, unless they are surprisingly poor.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• There is potential for the USD to gain some support from Empire Manufacturing Index today, which is the first of the January numbers which typically provide some lead on the ISM.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 17th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5844
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1956
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.6017

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3252
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8363
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3396

POUND HEADLINES:

• House prices have dropped in 5 of the past 7 months according to Rightmove so it us no surprise that GBP didn't show great interest in the paltry January gain reported overnight.
• A big week ahead for UK data with the opportunity perhaps of stronger CPI tomorrow worth selling into ahead of expected disappointing labour market and retail sales stats later in the week.
• Although the Bank of England decided to keep policy unchanged last week, we will have to wait for the MPC meeting minutes (due next week) to see how close the decision was. The minutes of the December MPC meeting included a forewarning that CPI inflation could well reach 4% by the spring and that for most members of the Committee the balance of risks to inflation had shifted upwards.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Technically, the market remains short EUR and as the 2-day EU Ecofin meeting gets underway and Germany reiterates its opposition to any expanded EFSF, we think the single currency could rapidly see ECB induced gains evaporate.
• The Economist newspaper has no reputation for causing tremors but its call for a debt restructuring in Friday's edition will not go unnoticed in EU political circles at the IMF prepares undertakes a 'routine' mission to Spain.
• Rising fuel prices helped push annual eurozone inflation up to 2.2% in December, from 1.9% in November. On Thursday last week, the ECB left interest rates unchanged for the 20th month in a row at its monthly meeting.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• A painful week dragged the dollar index all the way down last week to the low point of the 7-week range and one must now ask the question whether a break of the 79.0 level is imminent.
• A relatively quiet week for US data is headed by key readings on the housing market, with new starts (Wednesday) and existing homes sales (Thursday) both due.
• US retails sales rose in December for the fifth consecutive month, driven by holiday season demand, official figures have suggested. Sales grew by 0.6% last month compared with November, according to the US Commerce Department.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Friday 14th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5835
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1841
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5930

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3404
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8464
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3485

POUND HEADLINES:

• Sterling fell back against an all conquering EUR yesterday, but the underlying positive tone to GBP/USD remained, and looks set to persist for a bit as the high December CPI print approaches next week and the talk of higher European rates helps sustain recent UK yield rises.
• Initial resistances for GBP/USD at 1.5910 and 1.5935. There's nothing to hurt GBP today but it remains vulnerable to evidence of weak service sector growth.
• Today's data releases are firmly anchored around inflation conditions on both sides of the Atlantic. Given the sizeable output gap and relatively weak employment conditions both in the US and UK, the inflation focus is less about wages and more about imports, especially in light of the recent rises in crude oil and food prices.

EURO HEADLINES:

• Euro strength yesterday was partly about a modestly hawkish tone from ECB president 'Trichet' on inflation, partly about stops being triggered as the Spanish and Portuguese auctions turned out to be reasonable and EU periphery credit gained support from talk of German support for amendments to the EFSF.
• Trichet's comments were not especially surprising, and at this stage we would not expect the rally to extend far. The recent range top at 1.3433 in EUR/USD should hold, and renewed declines may be seen in other more risk positive EUR crosses.
• German CPI for December comes in as expected at 1.0%. The year-on-year figure also met expectations of 1.7%

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD weakened yesterday as the initial claims data disappointed, risk appetite remained positive and the Euro staged a sharp recovery. Most of the action in the EUR/USD was about the Euro rather than the USD, but the early euphoria about the US economy this year may be giving way to a dull assessment, despite Bernanke's comments overnight, and this won't play well for the USD if the generally more positive economic tone is more evident elsewhere, especially as other central banks are sounding much more hawkish.
• In the US, rising energy and food prices should have had little effect on the headline CPI figure, partially mitigated by a firm US dollar in December. It is expected little movement month-on-month in either core or headline series for December. The CPI core forecast for the year to December is expected to be negligible 0.8%.
• Other key data from the US today will include December retail sales, which could prove to surprise to the down side given poor winter weather conditions in the North East during the holiday season.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790

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IMS FX DAILY MORNING REPORT - Thursday 13th January 2011

Today's Interbank rates -

POUNDS TO US DOLLARS 1.5757
POUNDS TO EUROS 1.1975
POUNDS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.5808

EUROS TO US DOLLARS 1.3158
EUROS TO POUNDS 0.8350
EUROS TO AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS 1.3200

POUND HEADLINES:

• Today we have the Bank of England interest rate decision although it is expected that the Bank rate and APF target will remain unchanged.
• Central bank meetings dominate the outlook for today. From the MPC's perspective, the latest set of minutes saw the Committee warn that risks to inflation had 'probably shifted upwards', an observation that has sent shock waves through short-dated interest rates. Whilst the risks are acknowledged posed by inflation, It is expected it would take a significant second-round inflation effect over the coming months to encourage the MPC to tighten policy .
• Novembers industrial activity is released ahead of this announcement. It is expected another buoyant month for manufacturing (up 0.6% on the month, consensus 0.4%) based on strong survey evidence. However, disappointing oil export data yesterday pose some downside risks to the forecast of a 1.0% gain in industrial output (consensus 0.5%).

EURO HEADLINES:

• It was quite a smooth takedown of two Portuguese auctions calmed nerves yesterday, with China admittedly playing a increasingly significant influence.
• Spain and Italy are two of the PIGS tapping the market today.
• The ECB will provide more of a market focus today. This reflects no greater likelihood of policy change, but simply a keen attention on Eurozone developments, particularly in the light of Spanish and Italian debt auctions this morning, and the opportunity the ECB press conference provides for further updates.

US DOLLAR HEADLINES:

• The USD has been a sideshow this week to commodities and China/EU bond supply and it is not expected to change meaningfully over the next 48 hours.
• PPI, initial claims and foreign trade due today followed by Bernanke's speech on small business lending.
• Sterling rose yesterday against the dollar to a one month high following positive sentiment after the Portuguese bond auction and speculation over the timing of an interest rate rise in the UK.

If you need to buy, sell or make an international payment today then please
call me for a free quote.

Kris Charalambides

FX Broker

kris@imsfx.co.uk

www.imsfx.co.uk

Tel: 0207 183 2790